Saturday, August 02, 2008

Portfolio July 2008

My string of relative outperformance finally caught up with me in July. In what seemed to validate the "rolling bear market" thesis (where each sector gets taken out one by one rather than having a concerted bottom), it was a blood bath in many material and energy names. My actively managed accounts which had been doing very well in the first half of this year gave back all the gains and then some. Misery loves companies though. I note (ruefully) that Ken Heebners CGMFX and Tim Iacono's model portfolio are both now negative for the year.

In terms of actual numbers, the AM accounts gave back 9.15% to end at -0.73% YTD. The AA accounts gave back 3.06% to end at -7.70% YTD. Overall, I'm at -3.96% YTD which is still better than the double digit whacking took by the index ETFs I track.

Despite this set back, I remain committed to the general strategy of overweighing energy and material shares. I still have some DUG and UYG, purely for hedging purposes that I will probably jettison soon to make room for PCU which has taken a big hit lately.

In my last post I was pretty down on the PM sector, but it hung in there and was able to bounce back from $900. The most recent COT showed a big improvement. Coupled with a very low XAU:gold ratio, it should mark a low risk entry point for gold stocks.