Thursday, March 13, 2008

Double bottom?

Looking at the chart of the S&P, a case can be made that it has made a double bottom around 1270, especially given the positive price/MACD divergence. However, the benefit of doubt still belongs to the bearish side until the S&P can make a higher high above around 1390, more preferably above 1406. Until the market is definitively in an uptrend I'll maintain the view that the January low will be broken to the downside. To that end, Tuesday's Fed induced rally is the start of wave iv of 5 by my count. In other words I'm trying to stake out a middle ground between the bulls who have call a bottom for weeks and the bears who are calling a continuation of the bear market for years.

As far as PMs are concerned, my opinion has been whipsawing around. My original short term correction target was 470-475 on the HUI, which I thought was reached when the intraday low for the HUI reached 477 on Mar 4th. FWIW, at the time I had a short term target around 540 for the HUI. While the momentum indicators for HUI and the metals themselves are still pointing down, I still believe we're in the most explosive stage of this advance, hence it's better to err on the long side.