Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Any bears left?

I guess the answer is "no". While yesterday advance was accompanied by aweful advance/decline numbers, todays broad, high volume, foamin at the mouth action probably slaughtered the last of the bears. Even though I'm net long the market through my asset allocation accounts I still felt shaken as I have steadfastly maintained a bearish outlook. I only have a minimal short exposre via bear market mutual funds right now, but if the market shows any signs of topping, you can bet I'll prounce on it, the election be damned. (I'm now expecting the S&P to top out at 1360 or so.)

I closed my position in Sunccor (SU, +5%) yesterday and picked up some Central Fund of Canada (CEF, @ $8.10) as gold dropped about $21. Although gold dropped a further $14 today, the gold stocks made a high volume reversal, so the short term at least is looking up. To me CEF is just a more convinient form of bullion that I may consider selling in five years. Since I mistimed the most recent turn, I have transitioned into a buy-the-dips mode. I had planned to take small bites when the HUI reached 280 and 260 and intend to stick to it.

Good luck and be safe!