Sunday, August 06, 2006

Friday reversal

The dour mood at the end of Friday was palpable, a stark contrast to the exuberance following the “weak” payroll number early on. I certainly did not see it coming as I updated Thursday’s post in the morning. The reversal is significant especially as it happed near critical resistance levels (see TraderTim’s charts here).

I did add to my short in Beazer Homes (BZH, 200 sh @ $43.825 avg) which ran up about 25% in the past two weeks. I could have done a lot better had I shorted it right out of the gate, but I won’t quibble with a couple of points when I’m hoping to hold it into the teens :-)

The PM complex retreated with the general market just as I thought the break out was in the bank. I’m not overly concerned as long as the ABCDE triangle is still in play. Now that the Fed pause is baked in, the weakening US$ should pave way for higher PM prices going forward.

As always not investment advice, please do your own DD.