Monday, March 06, 2006

Stopped out of IYR; HUI 50 dma breached

On the day the 10 year went up to 4.75%, I was stopped out of my short position in IYR initiated at $70.05. To be honest, I'm still quite baffled by this. Are people anticipating a surge in rents and betting on the apartment REITs? I need to take a closer look at REITs vs. rates in the past couple housing cycles. At any rate, my mental stop loss of $71.10 was triggered this morning and I covered my short position at $71.30, for a small loss of 1.8%. So continues my misadvanture in shorting.

In PM land, I sold 400 sh of SLW at $9.62 this morning, a well-timed move if I may say so myself. HUI took a swan dive with the rest of the market in the afternoon and finishing the day at 306.53, breaching the 50 dma of 307.92. In spite of this, GG finished the day with a new high at $28.09. Yikes, I know I should have kept those calls.

Who are selling the treasuries and what are they going to do with that money? Was the run-up in silver part of the topping move in the PM complex? Are the silver supply deficits finally catching up to the Comex shorts as the recent COTs may indicate? Is the persistent premium in CEF indicating the impending approval of the silver ETF? Or is the market betting on the ETF never to materialize and placing a premium on the physical metal as the silver supply situation is revealed? There is an eerie calm in me as I ponder these questions, or was it a contentment that comes with a conviction of the far and a flexibility for the near? I'm beginning to think I trade more for emotional management than money management.